The population-level economic burden of liver cancer in China, 2019-2030: prevalence-based estimations from a societal perspective.

BACKGROUND: Benchmark data on the population-level economic burden are critical to inform policymakers about liver cancer control. However, comprehensive data in China are currently limited. METHODS: A prevalence-based approach from a societal perspective was used to quantify the annual economic burden of liver cancer in China from 2019 to 2030. Detailed per-case data on medical/non-medical expenditure and work-loss days were extracted from a multicenter survey. The numbers/rates of new/prevalent cases and deaths, survival, and population-related parameters were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 and the literature. All expenditure data were reported in both 2019 Chinese Yuan (CNY) and United States dollar (US$, for main estimations). RESULT: The overall economic burden of liver cancer was estimated at CNY76.7/US$11.1 billion in China in 2019 (0.047% of the local GDP). The direct expenditure was CNY21.6/US$3.1 billion, including CNY19.7/US$2.9 billion for medical expenditure and CNY1.9/US$0.3 billion for non-medical expenditure. The indirect cost was CNY55.1/US$8.0 billion (71.8% of the overall burden), including CNY3.0/US$0.4 billion due to disability and CNY52.0/US$7.5 billion due to premature death. The total burden would increase to CNY84.2/US$12.2 billion, CNY141.7/US$20.5 billion, and CNY234.3/US$34.0 billion in 2020, 2025, and 2030, accounting for 0.102%, 0.138%, and 0.192% of China's GDP, respectively. However, if China achieves the goals of Healthy China 2030 or the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals for non-communicable diseases, the burden in 2030 would be < CNY144.4/US$20.9 billion. CONCLUSIONS: The population-level economic burden of liver cancer in China is currently substantial and will consistently increase in the future. Sustainable efforts in primary and secondary interventions for liver cancer need to be further strengthened.

Is it possible to halve the incidence of liver cancer in China by 2050?

A substantial proportion of liver cancers is attributable to chronic infection with hepatitis B and C (HBV/HCV). Liver cancer could become the second cancer, after cervical, to be effectively controlled globally, if proven interventions such as vaccination can be implemented on a large scale. In 2018, the global mortality rate for liver cancer was estimated to be 8.5 per 100 000 individuals. Given patterns of HBV infection and immigration across countries, liver cancer control requires combined, global action. Liver cancer trends vary between countries, in some Western countries, the incidence rates were relatively low but have increased in recent decades; conversely, in several Asian countries, the incidence rates have decreased over time. China has in the past contributed more than half of the global burden of liver cancer but more recently a national decline in liver cancer incidence has been observed. Here, we review the liver cancer burden and exposure to risk factors in China, compared to other countries. We also review the implementation status for primary and secondary prevention interventions and major outcomes achieved over the past three decades. Using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis, we examine recent trends and based on these, predict that by 2050, the incidence of liver cancer in China could fall by half. We additionally survey the literature to identify current research needs, and review relevant national policies on liver cancer control in China. A comprehensive set of interventions is proposed to progress toward the long-term goal of liver cancer elimination based on the natural history and evidence-based interventions.

No expenditure difference among patients with liver cancer at stage I-IV: Findings from a multicenter cross-sectional study in China.

OBJECTIVE: The number of liver cancer patients in China accounts for more than half of the world. However, China currently lacks national, multicenter economic burden data, and meanwhile, measuring the differences among different subgroups will be informative to formulate corresponding policies in liver cancer control. Thus, the aim of the study was to measure the economic burden of liver cancer by various subgroups. METHODS: A hospital-based, multicenter and cross-sectional survey was conducted during 2012-2014, covering 39 hospitals and 21 project sites in 13 provinces across China. The questionnaire covers clinical information, sociology, expenditure, and related variables. All expenditure data were reported in Chinese Yuan (CNY) using 2014 values. RESULTS: A total of 2,223 liver cancer patients were enrolled, of whom 59.61% were late-stage cases (III-IV), and 53.8% were hepatocellular carcinoma. The average total expenditure per liver cancer patient was estimated as 53,220 CNY, including 48,612 CNY of medical expenditures (91.3%) and 4,608 CNY of non-medical expenditures (8.7%). The average total expenditures in stage I, II, III and stage IV were 52,817 CNY, 50,877 CNY, 50,678 CNY and 54,089 CNY (P>0.05), respectively. Non-medical expenditures including additional meals, additional nutrition care, transportation, accommodation and hired informal nursing were 1,453 CNY, 839 CNY, 946 CNY, 679 CNY and 200 CNY, respectively. The one-year out-of-pocket expenditure of a newly diagnosed patient was 24,953 CNY, and 77.2% of the patients suffered an unmanageable financial burden. Multivariate analysis showed that overall expenditure differed in almost all subgroups (P<0.05), except for sex, clinical stage, and pathologic type. CONCLUSIONS: There was no difference in treatment expenditure for liver cancer patients at different clinical stages, which suggests that maintaining efforts on treatment efficacy improvement is important but not enough. To furtherly reduce the overall economic burden from liver cancer, more effort should be given to primary and secondary prevention strategies.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of hepatitis B vaccine booster in children born to HBsAg-positive mothers in rural China.

OBJECTIVE: In rural areas of China with highly endemic for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, protective efficacy was observed in adulthood when a one-dose HBV vaccine booster was administered to high-risk children born to mothers who were positive for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg). The aim of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of an HBV vaccine booster in this specific group of children when given at 10 years of age. METHODS: Two potential strategies were considered: strategy 1 was a one-dose booster given if the child was negative on HBsAg screening; strategy 2 was a one-dose booster given if the child was negative on both HBsAg plus anti-HBs screening. A decision tree combined with a Markov model was developed to simulate the booster intervention process and to simulate the natural history of HBV infection in a cohort of 10-year-old children who were born to HBsAg-positive mothers. The model was calibrated based on multiple selected outcomes. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were measured from a societal perspective. Cost-effectiveness ratios (CERs) of the different strategies were compared in both base-case and one-way sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Compared to the current practice of 'no screening and no booster', both strategy 1 and strategy 2 were cost-saving, with CERs estimated at US$ -6961 and US$ -6872 per QALY gained, respectively. In the one-way sensitivity analysis for strategy 1, all the CERs were found to be less than US$ -5000 per QALY gained after considering the uncertainty of all the variables, including vaccination protective efficacy, natural history, behavior, and various costs and utility weights. In a 'worst case' scenario (all parameter values simultaneously being at the worst), the CER of strategy 1 increased to US$ 3263 per QALY gained, which was still less than the GDP per capita of China in 2016 (US$ 8126). CONCLUSIONS: A hepatitis B vaccine booster given to children born to HBsAg-positive mothers in rural China would be cost-effective and could be considered in HBV endemic areas.

Medical expenditure for liver cancer in urban China: A 10-year multicenter retrospective survey (2002-2011).

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to understand the medical expenditure for liver cancer during 2002-2011 in urban areas of China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a retrospective study. Based on a stratified cluster sampling method, a medical expenditure survey collected basic personal information from related medical records. Two-tailed independent sample t-test, variance analysis, and Student-Newman-Keuls Tests were used in cost analysis for the corresponding data types. RESULTS: A total of 12,342 liver cancer patients were included in the analysis. Overall average medical expenditure per case for liver cancer diagnosis and treatment in China has increased from ¥21, 950 to ¥40, 386 over the study period. For each liver cancer patient diagnosed between 2009 and 2011, the average expenditures were 29,332 CNY for stage I, 35,754 CNY for stage II, 34,288 CNY for stage III, and 30,275 CNY for stage IV diseases (P < 0.001). Pharmaceuticals accounted for the biggest part of the medical expenditure and it rose from 48.01% to 52.96% during these ten years, and the share of nursing fee expenses was the lowest (around 1%). Over the entire 10-year data period, the per capita expenditure of the east region (32,983 CNY) was higher than that of the west region (26,219 CNY) and slightly higher than the central region (31,018 CNY, P < 0.001). DISCUSSION: As a major cancer in China, liver cancer accounts for a large portion of health economic burden and its medical expenditure is heavy for families. Early diagnosis and treatment for liver cancer will save medical expenditure. CONCLUSION: The economic burden of liver cancer is high in China and related medical expenditure has increased.

[Burden of cancer in China: data on disability-adjusted life years].

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) has been increasingly used to estimate burden of disease worldwide. By giving a particular attention to DALYs, the objectives of the study were to review various data sources and to conduct an extended estimation on the burden of cancer in China. Based on the publications released by the GLOBOCAN 2008 program and the Global Burden of Disease 2010 (GBD 2010) program, we reviewed the methodological information and gathered DALY data associated with burden of cancer in China, and then we extracted and summarized the data and conducted an extended analysis. From a methodological perspective, both of the programs applied the utility weights mainly from populations other than China. The data from GLOBOCAN 2008 suggests that liver cancer has replaced lung cancer and became the leading cancer in males in China when using DALY rather than mortality rate as the indicator (6.3 million and 5.4 million DALYs, respectively); although the ranking is different, data from the GBD 2010 project shows DALYs caused by liver cancer is comparable to that associated with lung cancer (7.9 million and 8.0 million, respectively). The years lived with disability (YLDs) comprised 26% and 12% of the total DALYs associated with breast cancer and colorectal cancer in China. Both projects suggest that liver cancer might have become or is becoming the leading contributor to males' DALYs in China. There are indications that, along with economic development, YLD will play a more important role in estimation of burden of cancer in China; it suggests that China should consider introducing DALY into the estimation system as early as possible. It also suggests that research on quality of life and utility associated with the major cancers in China need to be systematically conducted to facilitate more accurate DALY estimation.